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Industry expects 'small spring' to turn into 'big bull market
Feb 3, 2023
Industry expects 'small spring' to turn into 'big bull market Hong Kong
By   Internet
  • City News
  • Hong Kong Property
  • Hong Kong Housing Market
  • Property Market
Abstract: The Federal Reserve announced a 0.25% interest rate hike, raising the federal funds rate to between 4.5% and 4.75%.

The rate of increase this time is narrower than the last 0.5% and lower than the 0.75% increase in each of the past four meetings, and Hong Kong banks have kept the interest rate unchanged for the time being, which is good news for the property market.

 

It is widely believed that the US interest rate hike cycle will end in May at the earliest, and some even estimate that interest rates will be cut in the second half of the year, when the property market will be upgraded from a "small spring" to a "big bull market".

 

Centaline Property Asia Pacific Vice Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of the Residential Division, Vincent Chan, said the orderly slowdown in the pace of interest rate hikes in the US is a positive sign for the property market.

 

Benefiting from the relaxation of epidemic prevention between the Mainland and Hong Kong, the resumption of customs clearance and the clarification of interest rate peaks, the property market has witnessed a "mini-positive spring" in the new year, with over 500 first-hand transactions in January, representing a month-on-month rebound of nearly 90%, and 279 transactions in Centaline's top 10 estates in January, up 32% month-on-month.

 

If the Federal Reserve stops raising interest rates in the second half of the year, or even cuts them, property prices will rebound with a vengeance and the property market will move from a "small spring" to a "big bull market".

 

As for the president of Ricacorp Properties, Mr. Liu Weiqiang also said that the current trend has clearly shown that the range of interest rate hikes will tend to gradually narrow; and the US Federal Reserve is also considering suspending interest rate hikes after two hikes in the year, which definitely has a positive effect on the Hong Kong property market, the signal of the top of the interest rate is stronger; it is expected that the home buyers' concern and pressure on the interest expenses of mortgages can be gradually eliminated.

 

If inflation comes down under control, there is a chance that interest rates will be cut in the second half of the year.

 

Mr. Liu continued that with the increase in the number of normal border crossings between Hong Kong and the Mainland, the number of people coming south to Hong Kong has increased and the flow of people, goods and economic flows between the two places have become more active, which will further benefit the property market.

 

According to the information from the first-hand residential property sales information website, the number of new property transactions recorded in January was about 503, up about 87% month-on-month, a four-month high; on the second-hand side, according to the statistics from Midland Realty branches, about 279 transactions were recorded in January in 10 major indicator estates, up more than 30% month-on-month, a nine-month high, and the property market has seen an "early arrival of spring".

 

He believes that with the arrival of a positive spring in the property market, the number of first-hand transactions is expected to reach a six-month high of around 2,000 in February, driven by the accelerated pace of new property launches, while the number of second-hand transactions is also expected to rise to 5,000 in February, which is expected to be a 19-month high.

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Industry expects 'small spring' to turn into 'big bull market
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