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Forecast Analysis of Property Sales and Purchase Agreement Registrations
Mar 20, 2023
Forecast Analysis of Property Sales and Purchase Agreement Registrations Hong Kong
By   Centaline Property
  • City News
  • Property for sale
  • property transactions
  • property market
Abstract: The total number of sales and purchases in the first quarter is expected to reach 18,100, a record high in three quarters.

According to Mr. Wong Leung Sing, Senior Associate Director of Centaline Property Research, as of March 15, the total number of sale and purchase agreements for March 2023 (including residential, carparking and commercial/industrial properties) was 3,624, with a total value of $29.07 billion.

 

The total number of sale and purchase agreements for the month is estimated to be 7,700 and $60 billion, representing an increase of 28.8% and 37.0% respectively over the 5,980 and $43.81 billion recorded in February.

 

As the post-Chinese New Year boom continues, the property market will continue to see robust transactions, pushing the overall number of transactions to a 10-month high since the 7,949 recorded in May 2022 and the value to a 7-month high since the $91.60 billion recorded in August 2022.

 

On a quarterly basis, the first quarter of the year saw a provisional total of 14,031 transactions and $105.37 billion, surpassing the 11,721 transactions and $88.86 billion registered in the fourth quarter of 2022.

 

The total number of registrations is expected to reach 18,100 and $136.0 billion in the first quarter of this year, up 54.4% and 53.0% quarter-on-quarter, and is estimated to reach a three-quarter high after 19,091 in the second quarter of 2022.

 

As for first-hand private residential sales, 504 cases and $6.64 billion were recorded in March up to March 15. It is estimated that there will be around 1,200 cases and $15 billion for the month, up by 85.5% and 65.0% respectively from 647 cases and $9.09 billion in February.

 

The number of cases will reach a 6-month high since September 2022 when 1,418 cases were recorded, and the value will reach a 9-month high since June 2022 when $16.23 billion was recorded. This reflects the fact that the number of first-hand sales rose back to the 1,000 level in February, as developers actively promoted new sales. On a quarterly basis, the first quarter recorded a provisional 1,503 first-hand sales and $20.76 billion, while the full quarter is estimated to be around 2,200 sales and $29 billion, up 70.0% and 89.0% quarter-on-quarter.

 

The highest number of new properties registered in March was Koko Rosso, Phase 3A of Koko Hills, Lam Tin, with 63 cases and $487 million provisionally recorded. One Innovale Phase 2, One Innovale-Bellevue, recorded 35 cases and $162 million for the time being.

 

For second-hand private residential properties, as at 15 March, 2,083 cases and $16.70 billion were provisionally recorded in March. For the month as a whole, 4,200 transactions and $34 billion are expected, up 28.5% and 31.5% respectively from 3,269 and $25.86 billion in February. The figures are set to reach a 10-month high after the 4,304 cases and $38.66 billion recorded in May 2022. Reflecting the return of user confidence in purchasing a car in February, coupled with the recovery in property prices, secondary transactions were active.

 

On a quarterly basis, the first quarter recorded a provisional total of 7,806 transactions and $65.63 billion in the second-hand sector. The number and value of transactions will reach a three-quarter high after the 10,853 cases and $96.54 billion recorded in the second quarter of 2022.

 

As for large estates, as at 15 March, 33 cases (totalling $233 million) were provisionally recorded in Mei Foo Sun Chuen, 29 cases (totalling $1.5 billion) in City One Shatin, and 1.5 million in City One Shatin.

($169 million), Taikoo Shing ($275 million) and Kingswood Villas ($125 million).

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Forecast Analysis of Property Sales and Purchase Agreement Registrations
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