Taking into account the number of units that have not yet been granted pre-sale consent (about 53,000 units), units that have been granted but not yet sold (about 10,000 units) and end-of-completion units (about 16,000 units), the market is ready to supply up to 79,000 units, which is equivalent to the normal intake of 5.5 years. With the influx of supply in the short term, there is a tendency for new developments to be sold at lower and lower prices recently.

Combined with the news from developers and the market, over 19,000 units of potential first-hand supply are expected to come on stream this quarter. The full resumption of customs clearance between the Mainland and Hong Kong has boosted the economy, coupled with a slower pace of interest rate hikes in the US, which has accelerated the pace of local and Mainland customers entering the market for home ownership.

In addition, the trend of selling new properties at lower and lower prices has been on the rise recently. After Tuen Mun Feiyang, yesterday SHKP announced the first batch of discounted average price of $16,288 for University Hill, Phase 2 of Pak Shek Kok's University Hill project, which is nearly 7% lower than that of Silicon Hill, Phase 1, launched in May last year.

In fact, the tug of war between developers to reduce prices is gradually surfacing ahead of the potential influx of new developments. Phase 1 of Feiyang, a joint venture between Cheung Kong and SHKP, was offered at a reduced price of up to 17 per cent for the remaining 108 units in the Tai Lam section of Castle Peak Road in Tuen Mun.

When the first price list for Phase 2 was announced in the middle of last month, the average discounted price was around $12,500 per square foot, a record low for new properties in the past three years since Wetland Seasons Park in May 2020, and 20% lower than the discounted average price of $15,050 for the first batch of Phase 1 in June last year.

According to market news, there are over 10,000 units of new developments available for sale in Kowloon this quarter. Apart from the newly launched KOKO MARE in Lam Tin and Yu Yi Phase IC in Ho Man Tin, most of the supply is concentrated in the Kai Tak development area, including: Harbour View - Double Diamond (702 units) by China Overseas, HENLEY PARK (740 units) by Henderson Land and Kai Tak Skyrail (about 566 units) by Henderson Land in partnership with six major developers including New World. 566 units), etc.

In addition, Hong Kong Ferry's Cheung Sha Wan (262 units) and Cheung Kong's Yau Tong waterfront project (903 units), a joint venture with the URA, are also expected to come on stream during the season.

In the New Territories, there are about 7 new developments available for sale this quarter, involving about 7,901 units, mostly from the "Northern Metro Area". Among them, Phase 1 of the above-station project of SHKP Tin Wing is expected to be launched at the end of the quarter, involving 1,938 units, while Phase 2A of NOVO LAND in Tuen Mun has also obtained pre-sale consent for a 929-unit project to be launched shortly.

Phase 2 of Kam Sheung Road Station by Sino Land, in partnership with K. Wah and China Overseas, involving 680 units, was approved for pre-sale in September last year and is ready for sale. Hung Shui Kiu Hui Du, a 1,025-unit development by the Pan Ocean Group, is expected to be completed by the end of June 2025 and both phases have been submitted for pre-sale. The two phases are expected to be completed by the end of June 2025.

On the other hand, LOHAS Park is another key new property supply this season. The joint development of Sino Land, K. Wah and China Merchants Land, LOHAS Park III and Wheelock Properties and MTR's LOHAS Park 12 are also expected to be launched this season, offering 644 units and 1,985 units respectively.