There are different stages of private residential development. According to the Housing Bureau's "Private Residential Primary Market Supply", there are four stages of development, namely "raw land", "disposed land", projects under construction and completed buildings.

"Raw land": potential residential land supply, including unsold residential land of the Government, railroad and Urban Renewal Authority (URA) development projects that have not yet been awarded to co-developers, and private land that has been granted planning permission for residential use but has not yet reached the necessary lease modification or land switch communication agreement with the Government.

"Disposed land": Land that has been granted but not yet commenced, including residential land sold by the Government, and private land with planning permission for residential use for railway/URA development projects for which the Government has entered into the necessary lease modifications or LCCs. These projects are ready for construction.

Under Construction: Projects for which foundation works (or superstructure works in the case of railroad properties) have commenced, including projects from the "disposed sites" mentioned above and private residential redevelopment projects that do not require lease modifications.

Completed buildings: Buildings that have been completed and issued with occupation permits.

It should be noted that some of the units in the "completed" buildings mentioned above have already been sold, while some units in the projects under construction have also been put on the market during the "uncompleted" period.

After deducting this batch of sold units, the number of unsold units in completed buildings, the number of unsold units in buildings, and the number of units on granted land ready for construction are combined to form the first-hand supply for the next 3 to 4 years mentioned at the beginning of this article. the latest supply announced at the end of October was 95,000 units, a one-year low for the second consecutive quarter.

Why is the "supply of first-hand private residential properties in the next 3 to 4 years" falling continuously?

The increase or decrease of first-hand private residential supply in the next 3 to 4 years depends on the tug of war between the "supply of disposed land" and "sales of new flats", i.e. the more "supply of disposed land", the more first-hand private residential supply in the next 3 to 4 years will be, by definition, more; on the contrary, the less "supply of disposed land", the less first-hand private residential supply in the next 3 to 4 years will be.

On the contrary, the lower the supply of disposed land, the lower the supply of first-hand private residential properties in the next three to four years. "Sales of new properties" is the opposite of the supply of first-hand private residential properties in the next three to four years, i.e. the more new properties sold, the lower the supply of first-hand private residential properties in the next three to four years.

However, hit by the epidemic, new property sales are lower than in previous years, with nearly 8,700 new properties sold in the first 10 months of 2022, only about 53% of the average of about 16,325 from 2014 to 2021; it is believed that the annual trend is a new low since the 2013 first-hand sales regulations; however, the overall first-hand supply is not increasing but decreasing, which precisely reflects the slower pace of land replenishment.

Of course, the figures only reflect the situation in the 3rd quarter of 2022; and the situation after that will change with the local and global economy, government housing policies and other factors.

In terms of policy, the government stated in its policy address on October 19, 2022 that it is prepared to build no less than 72,000 residential units in the next five years through land sales or railroad property development, which means an average of about 14,400 units per year, which is more than the target of 12,900 units per year recommended by the Long Term Housing Strategy Steering Committee, and it is believed that the policy will help improve the long-term land It is believed that the policy will help improve the long-term shortage of land supply.