Chan Wing-jie, vice chairman and president of the Residential Division of Centaline Property Asia Pacific, said that the property market will rise first and then recover in 2023, reflecting the trend of the second-hand residential property market in major large housing estates, the Centaline City Leading Index (CCL) is expected to record a decline of about 5% for the whole year, during the downturn in property prices, buyers have a strong wait-and-see atmosphere and low intention to enter the market, and the transaction volume of first-hand private residential properties is expected to be about 10,500 this year.

It would be the lowest in nearly a decade since the 9,753 cases recorded in 2013. Second hand private residential registrations are expected to be about 30,000 for the year, which may be a record low for 28 years since records began in 1996.

Chen Yongjie said that the local economy has slowed down, the housing market has not completed the downward adjustment, and the backlog of first-hand goods and tail units has reached more than 20,000 units, a new high in nearly 20 years, which is worthy of vigilance.

With the latest interest rate hike in the United States last week indicating that the period of interest rate hikes may have come to an end, the market is looking forward to the opportunity to cut interest rates three times in total of 0.75 per cent next year, which will give a boost to the Hong Kong property market.

Around the Lunar New Year next year is the traditional peak season of the property market, coupled with the stimulation of good news, it is expected that the first quarter of 2024 will usher in the volume of "Xiaoyang spring". He believed that with the high number of main order cases and negative equity of banks, the Government might propose further reduction or even complete withdrawal of the liquidity in the Budget in early next year or late February.

At that time, if the concerns about the interest rate factor dissipate, coupled with the mitigation measures, there is a chance to drive property prices to bottom out in the first half of the year and rebound by 5%.

He revealed that due to sluggish trading, the number of branches of Centaline Property has been reduced to 379 this year, about 19% less than at the beginning of the year, and the target is to reduce by 29 or about 8% to 350 next year. At present, the number of sales staff is 4941, which has been reduced by about 9.7% during the year, and the target is to maintain about 5000 next year. He also predicted that the annual commission income of the Hong Kong housing department would be about $2.7 billion in 2023, down about 5.9% from the whole of last year.

The Midland Realty Residential Division Chief Executive Officer (Hong Kong and Macao), Mr Patrick Buk, said that Midland Realty's "Midland Property Price Index", which is compiled based on the transaction cases of 143 major small and medium-sized private residential estates in Hong Kong, was last at 139.04, down 0.4% on a weekly basis, representing a total decline of 8.33% for 18 consecutive weeks.

Following last year's "price and volume decline", the situation continues this year. He bluntly said that the US Federal Reserve has suspended interest rate hikes for three consecutive times, and if the US cuts interest rates in the future, Hong Kong's interest rate is expected to be lowered by then, and property prices are expected to have the opportunity to stop falling and rise by about 5% next year. Due to the expected increase in trading volume next year, the bank plans to hire 1,000 more front-line agents in the first half of next year, and increase the number of branches in regions with potential development.

Last week, Victor Liew, president of Ligagarte Properties, was the first to sing the praises of the property market, predicting that property prices could bottom out early next year and recover, with prices of small, medium and large residential properties soaring by 8% in 2024.

Local agents are optimistic about the property market next year, but foreign surveyors are pessimistic. For example, JLL estimates that small and medium residential property prices will fall by another 10% next year, and Knight Frank predicts that property prices will fall by up to 5% in the whole year. DTZ expects property prices to fall by up to 5 percent in the first half of next year.