The Land Sale Programme and the railway property projects will together supply at least 72,000 private residential units in the next five years, nearly double the size of the previous five-year period.
According to the Government, nearly 60 per cent of this land supply will come from the New Development Areas and New Town Extensions, while another 40 per cent will come from government land sale projects and railway property development projects in other districts.
As for the number of completed flats, the Government estimates that in the five years starting from this year, the average number of private residential flats to be completed each year will be over 19,000; and the potential supply of first-hand private residential flats will remain high at around 105,000 in the next three to four years.
While the Government's forecast for future private sector supply is promising, the industry is cautious and considers it challenging to meet the supply target.
According to Knight Frank's Managing Director of Professional Services, Chan Chi-sin, developers are expected to continue to be cautious in their land bids this year in light of the current market conditions and global economic uncertainties, and are therefore not optimistic that the Government will be able to successfully auction all sites, which is expected to have an impact on both housing supply and revenue.
DTZ's Global Director and CEO of Greater China, Mr Chiu Kam-kuen, also said that the Government should review the standard land prices and tender prices to ensure that they are in line with the realities of the market, given the recent abortive land sales.
The bank agrees that the "Northern Metro Area" is the new engine of Hong Kong's future development. In order to accelerate the development of this area, the bank suggests that the government should set milestones for the two new development areas of Yuen Long South and Hung Shui Kiu, so as to promote their planning and development as soon as possible.
At the same time, it was suggested that the Government should give priority to consolidating land for planning the construction of industrial parks.
Chiu Kam-kuen also agrees that "Simple Public Rental Housing" can help fill the shortage of public housing supply in the short term. However, to allay public concerns about the resumption of "Simple Public Rental Housing" sites, he suggests that the Government should provide the public with a clear timetable for land resumption, or even consider putting some of the "Simple Public Rental Housing" sites on the Application List in due course, so as to give the public confidence that the sites concerned will be put back on the market in the near future.
Mr Li Junjie, Assistant Director of Valuation and Consultancy of Prudential, noted that the proportion of supply from outside the Government was increasing, but such supply was uncertain and the Government must strengthen its study of medium to long-term housing policy measures to ensure future supply.
In addition, there are three commercial sites and three industrial sites in the land sale programme, providing approximately 200,000 square metres of commercial and 170,000 square metres of industrial floor space. According to CBRE's Head of Research, Hong Kong, Chan Kam Ping, the number of commercial sites in next year's land sale programme is less than this year's, but the bank expects limited interest from developers due to the abundant supply of office space.
The three industrial sites will provide slightly more floor space than the 146,000 sq m of the two industrial sites sold this fiscal year. Given the low vacancy rate of industrial properties, the government may consider releasing more industrial sites to meet market demand.
As for public housing, the Government has indicated that it has identified sufficient land for the construction of about 360,000 public housing units, which is about 20% higher than the supply target under the LTHS and can meet the demand for about 300,000 public housing units in the next 10 years.
However, due to the uneven distribution of housing sites every year and the time required for land production, there is still a shortage of land available for public housing development in the short term.
To fill the shortfall in the short-term supply of public housing as soon as possible and to improve the living environment of people living in inadequate housing, the Government has also identified eight sites for the development of "simple public housing".
As for transitional housing, as at the end of last year, about 7,000 transitional housing units had been put into operation, and another 14,000 units are expected to come on stream in the next two years.
