The latest figures released by the Differential Valuation Department yesterday show that the private residential property price index in January this year was 336.1 points, up slightly by 0.6% from 334.1 points in December last year, the first rebound after seven consecutive months of decline, ending the past seven months of a cumulative decline of 13.33%, property prices of all types of flats rebounded.
According to analysis, the property price index can be expanded to 2% in March, that is, the first quarter has the opportunity to accumulate up to 3.6%, if there is no sudden negative news in the second quarter, property prices have the opportunity to rise by 5%, that is, the first half of the property prices are expected to accumulate nearly 9%.
Compared to the record high of 398.1 points in September 2021, the private property sales price index still fell by 15.57% last month.
When broken down by household type, Class C (753 to 1,076 sq ft) registered the largest increase last month at 307.2 points, up 0.85% month-on-month; Class D (1,076 to 1,721 sq ft) was 305.3 points, up 0.76%; Class B (431 to 752 sq ft) was 324.7 points, up 0.68%; and Class A (431 sq ft or less) was 368.2 points, up 0.68%. ) was quoted at 368.2 points, up 0.52%.
Class E (1,722 sq ft or above) units were at 300.4 points, up for the second month in a row and up 0.07% month-on-month.
As for the rental index, it softened slightly, with January's rental index at 173.9 points, down 0.63% month-on-month, for the fifth consecutive month and down 3.98% year-on-year.
According to Mr. Chan Hoi Chiu, Head of Property Research at Ricacorp, property prices of A to E units rose last month, mainly reflecting the positive news of the customs clearance between the Mainland and Hong Kong, which led to an improvement in the overall property market atmosphere, coupled with the massive lifting of the government's epidemic prevention restrictions and the return of social and economic livelihood to normal.
Looking ahead to February, benefiting from further comprehensive customs clearance, the United States interest rate hike narrowed, Hong Kong did not follow the interest rate hike, all kinds of buyers into the market will be accelerated one after another, February property price index will expand to 1%.
As for the positive momentum in March, coupled with the Budget's reduction in the stamp duty rate for first-time buyers of properties priced below $10 million, further consolidating the current positive atmosphere, the property price index is expected to expand to 2% again in March, meaning that there is a chance that property prices will accumulate to 3.6% in the first quarter.
Chan Hoi Chiu believes that if the current positive momentum continues and there are no unpredictable negative factors in the second quarter, property prices will continue to rise in price and volume in the second quarter, which is traditionally a peak market, with a chance of a further 5% rise in property prices, i.e. a cumulative increase of nearly 9% in the first half of the year, accelerating from the previously expected U-shaped rebound to a V-shaped rebound.
Knight Frank Director and Head of Greater China Research and Consultancy Wang Zhaoqi said, the official property price index reflects the main secondary property prices, although the index rose 0.6% month-on-month in January, but it may be due to the news of customs clearance and brought about by the retaliatory rebound, the short-term uncertainty will continue to hinder the rebound in property prices, is expected to be more volatile trend of the official index in the next few months.
Factors such as high interest rates and lack of purchasing power will continue to affect the performance of the property market, and property prices are expected to remain low in the first quarter of this year, while the number of transactions will gradually pick up.
He also said that although the United States has started to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes, it is expected that the factors of interest rate hikes will only fade in the second half of the year, and there is still a chance that the overall borrowing costs in Hong Kong will rise in the short term, affecting people on board and new mortgages.
In addition, the Government's decision not to withdraw spice across the board has prevented the property market atmosphere from reversing overnight, and it will take a longer period of time before we see any significant improvement.
The overall transaction volume has rebounded significantly since the full clearance, but the purchasing power of the market is still insufficient. It is believed that some developers will start to re-launch new properties, but due to the impact of the backlog, it is believed that developers will offer more concessions and financial plans to attract buyers when launching properties.