The latest Centaline City Leading Index (CCL) is at 159.87 points, down 1.19% week-on-week, hitting a 32-week low and dropping for 5 consecutive weeks. The bank expects the index to drop to 148 points in the fourth quarter, or 7.4 per cent more than this week's index, due to a spate of negative news.
The CCL fell through 160 points to 159.87, down 1.19 per cent week-on-week to a 32-week low, returning to the level seen in January this year. Meanwhile, the index has fallen 3.36% for 5 weeks in a row, and the rate of decline has accelerated significantly, down 0.09% 3 weeks ago, 0.20% the week before, 0.38% last week, and this week's decline has widened to 1.19%. If we compare with the high of 168.40 points in April this year, the index has dropped 5.07% in the past 22 weeks, and the overall property price increase this year has narrowed to 1.98%.
Yang Mingyi, Senior Associate Director of Research at Centaline Property, pointed out yesterday that the CCL has fallen below the 160-point level this week. It is believed that under the circumstances of the banks' upward adjustment of the H-price cap rate for new-build H-plans, the nine-and-a-half-year low per-square-foot land price of residential sites No. 2 and No. 3 in Area 2A of Kai Tak on 13 September, and the lowest discounted price per square foot of Tuen Mun new-build Kaiser and Hill's first price list announced on 14 September, the price of second-hand flats will continue to be pressured to fall. The second-hand property prices continue to be under pressure.
Looking ahead, the CCL may drop to 148 points in the fourth quarter of this year, and apart from evaporating the annual property price increase in 2023, it is expected to fall by about 5% from last year's low.
As for the performance of property prices in different districts, the New Territories West Index was at 145.61 points, down 2.75% week-on-week, and down 5.02% for the third consecutive week. The Kowloon index was at 153.00, down 1.91% week-on-week and down 2.44% for the second consecutive week.
The New Territories East Index was at 175.07 points, down 1.00% week-on-week, with the index reaching a 28-week low. The Hong Kong Island Index was at 163.49 points, up 1.41% week-on-week, up 1.49% for 2 weeks.