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Falling prices and increasing mortgage payments
Nov 4, 2022
Falling prices and increasing mortgage payments Hong Kong
By   Internet
  • City News
  • Property Market
  • Hong Kong Bank
  • Rate Hike
Abstract: Two interest rate hikes in three months, borrowing 5 million monthly payments increased by $989.

Hong Kong property prices in recent months to accelerate the speed of downward adjustment, but the house leakage, Hong Kong banks yesterday again with the Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, the four major banks to raise the prime rate (P) 0.25%, in September, that is, the second time in three months, a cumulative increase of 0.375%, with a loan of 5 million yuan, 30 years, the monthly repayment increased by $989 compared to September before the increase in P.


In the "fall in property prices, but the mortgage payments have increased, the public can buy a double loss. Financial Secretary Paul Chan reminded yesterday that the United States is expected to further increase interest rates, the business environment in Hong Kong under the epidemic will also be "malaise", property prices will fall again, the public should be careful to measure the risk.


As expected by the market, the Federal Reserve announced yesterday to raise the federal funds rate by 0.75%, the latest 3.75% to 4%. United exchange rate system, the cost of funding pressure on Hong Kong banks also increased sharply, HSBC, Hang Seng yesterday raised the Hong Kong dollar prime rate (P) 0.25%, the latest P for 5.375%, effective today.


Bank of China Hong Kong also raised the P plus 0.25% to 5.375%, but effective next Monday. Standard Chartered will raise the P from 5.375% to 5.625% next week. Market forecasts, in the leading banks to raise interest rates, other small and medium-sized banks in the next few days will follow one after another to raise interest rates.


On the surface, this is the second time in the year the Hong Kong Bank to raise P, the cumulative rate of 0.375%, to borrow 5 million yuan loan, 30 years, the monthly repayment than the September increase in P before the increase of $989.


However, Li Ka Court mortgage agency managing director Wong Wing-yan pointed out that, due to the bank has repeatedly raised the H mortgage lock interest rate ceiling, the impact of the superposition, the current large banks H mortgage lock interest rate ceiling of P minus 2.25%.


With the banks raising the P to 5.375%, the actual mortgage rate for second-hand properties has risen to 3.125%, which is equivalent to a cumulative 0.625% interest rate hike, and using the above example of borrowing $5 million, the monthly repayment has increased to $21,419, an increase of $1,663 (8.42%) compared to September before the lock-up rate ceiling and P hike.


It is worth noting that, although the United States in March to start the current round of interest rate hike cycle, so far 6 times to raise interest rates, but in its initial several interest rate hikes, Hong Kong and the H-pegged one-month interest rate (HIBOR) has not changed significantly, until the United States in June after a substantial increase in interest rates, the Hong Kong one-month interest rate only started.


The actual mortgage rate for second-hand properties was about 1.48% at that time, using the same example of borrowing a $5 million loan, the monthly mortgage payment was about $17,208 at that time, compared to today (after raising the upper limit of interest rate lock and the two P increases), the monthly mortgage payment for new second-hand properties is $4,211 more than in May or 24.5%, making the mortgage burden much heavier.


Centaline Property Asia Pacific Vice Chairman and President of the Residential Division, said that the current economic and property market conditions in Hong Kong are not optimistic, CCL has recorded a decline of 8.9% in the first 10 months of this year, property prices continue to decline, coupled with a number of property market data such as negative equity, silver master plate and new property sales volume are at a multi-year high.


At the same time, whether new or second-hand transactions have slowed down significantly, reflecting the property market has sounded the alarm. U.S. interest rate hikes will continue to Hong Kong dollar interest rates up, Hong Kong banks are expected to raise the prime rate again, interest rate hikes will undoubtedly increase the burden on the public mortgage, making the property market worse.


He pointed out that although the United States is expected to scale back the rate hike next month at the earliest, but there is a chance to extend the interest rate hike cycle, the property market can be said to extend the pain.


Property market in the first 10 months of this year, first-hand and second-hand transactions recorded a total of more than 37,200 cases, is expected to record about 44,000 cases for the year, will be a record low since 1996.


In terms of property prices, property prices are expected to fall by 2% per month, the fourth quarter will fall by 6%, the annual decline of 15%, individual estates have the opportunity to fall by 20%. He said frankly: "This is already a danger signal of the property market, I hope the government to take timely measures to review the property market hot moves, timely reduction of hot, stable economy.


The Chief Vice President of Meridian Mortgage Referral Cao Deming said that the interest rate has been climbing, yesterday one month HIBOR was 3.21%, and has been maintained for nine consecutive working days above the level of 3%, has long been higher than the general bank new P mortgage interest rate and H mortgage cap rate, I believe that the year one month HIBOR will challenge the level of 3.5% or more.


Hong Kong banks in next month after the interest rate meeting or raise P again, the rate increase of about 0.25% or more. Star Valley Mortgage referral CEO Chong Kam Fai and Centaline Mortgage Managing Director Wong Mei Fung are also expected to have the pressure of the banks to raise the P again, Chong Kam Fai is expected to increase the P by 1% in the coming year.

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