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Property prices may fall more than 6% this quarter
Nov 29, 2022
Property prices may fall more than 6% this quarter Hong Kong
By   Internet
  • City News
  • property prices
  • property market
  • real estate
Abstract: 13-month cumulative decline of 11.48% market participants hope that the financial case "less spicy.

Property prices continue to fall at a wider rate! The Differential Valuation Department announced yesterday the latest October property price index, has been for three consecutive months on a monthly basis fell by more than 2%, the latest decline of up to 2.41%, the largest single-month decline in the past four years.


It is worth noting that property prices from last September's record high of 398.1 points, so far the 13-month cumulative decline of about 11.48%, the longest decline cycle after the 2002-2003 SARS.


And today's property price index, has turned back the clock to nearly 5 years ago at the end of 2017 level, is expected to November, December property price index is still down, the fourth quarter property price decline is afraid to expand to 6.75%, and the annual decline in property prices will be close to 15%, or a 14.5% drop in 2000, 22 years after the largest annual decline.


Poor estimation department yesterday announced the October private residential sales price index, the latest report 352.4 points, compared with September's 361.1 points again fell 2.41%, down 5 months in a row, and hit since December 2018, 47 months (nearly 4 years) the largest single-month decline.


And the first 10 months of this year, property prices have fallen 10.54%, compared to the record high of 398.1 points in September last year, a cumulative decline of 11.48%.


Rent fell much less, the rent index in October at 179.5 points, a slight increase of about 0.28% month-on-month, the first 10 months of rent fell by 1.75%.


Among the various types of units, small and medium-sized units (A, B, C category) fell more, the latest October property price index at 354.2 points, down 2.5% month-on-month, down 11.12% year-on-year.


Among them, the practical area of 430 square feet or less of class A small units, and 431 square feet to 752 square feet of class B medium-sized units, respectively, fell 2.41% and 2.64% month-on-month, a rather alarming decline.


Class C units between 753 sq ft and 1,075 sq ft fell by 1.58% month-on-month. As for large units (D and E), they were reported at 306.7 points in October, down 1% month-on-month and 8.96% year-on-year.


Ricacorp real estate research department director Chan Hoi Chiu said that the interest rate haze entangled not dissipated, the epidemic repeatedly not recede, the market favorable factors overwhelmed the good news, property prices have been a series of three months on a monthly basis by more than 2%, property prices are expected to continue to find the bottom, the cumulative annual decline of up to 15%.


Checking the information, the last year-on-year decline of about 15%, was in 2000, when the Asian financial turmoil coupled with the blast of science and technology network stocks, the poor estimate of the Department of property prices index had fallen for 5 years, to 2003 after the SARS and then back to the upward track.


In addition, this time also for 2003 after SARS, Hong Kong's property market experienced the longest decline in the market, calculating the property market high in September last year to date, property prices have fallen 13 months, compared to the financial tsunami in 2008 during the 6 months, the Sino-US trade war in 2019 and the amendment storm during the 9 months, the fall cycle are longer, second only to 2002 to 2003 during the SARS experienced 19 months of decline in the market .


Chan Hoi Chiu pointed out that in October the differential valuation department property price index has fallen to a new low of 59 months (i.e. nearly 5 years) since December 2017.


It is worth noting that the October index mainly reflects the actual market conditions from mid-September to early October, when the United States continued to raise interest rates significantly, and Hong Kong also raised interest rates for the first time in 4 years by 0.125%, officially kicked off the local interest rate hike, prospective buyers are prudent, the desire to enter the market is discouraged, resulting in a further decline in property prices.


And in late October, the policy address did not reduce the spicy measures, coupled with the United States in early November, another sharp increase in interest rates 0.75%, Hong Kong also raised interest rates by 0.25%, further impact on the property market, so it is expected that the next announcement of the November property price index has the opportunity to record a similar 2.5% decline, the decline will not stop.


Looking ahead to December, see the recent epidemic in Hong Kong and the Mainland have warmed up, I believe that the short-term return to normal customs clearance is still hopeless, relying solely on the local circulation is difficult to activate the property market, is expected to December property prices are still under pressure down, the fourth quarter property prices fell to 6.75%.


As for the first quarter of next year, by the lack of economic performance and the traditional off-season around the Lunar New Year, property prices are expected to continue to be under pressure, if the cumulative decline of nearly 20%, he expects the budget in late February next year to adjust the property market spicy measures.


Knight Frank Director and Head of Greater China Research and Consulting Wang Zhaoqi also pointed out that the lack of good news in the market, while the rapid deterioration of the local and global economic outlook, the overall market atmosphere is weak, the official index is expected to continue to bottom out in the short term, the annual official property price index will expand to 15%, the first quarter of next year, property prices and transaction volume will still hover at a low level.

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Property prices may fall more than 6% this quarter