Hong Kong real estate CEO Ma Taiyang believe that unless the mainland and Hong Kong as soon as possible to implement the resumption of normal customs clearance, or early next year, property prices are still in the adjustment phase, the earliest in the first half of next year, the interest rate hike cycle has signs of topping, the property market "visibility" to improve before presenting a major breakthrough, is expected to bottom out next year, property prices rebound 5%.
Ma Taiyang pointed out that although the SAR government at the end of this year to cancel the people coming to Hong Kong "yellow code" and no sweep "peace of mind travel" arrangements again for the epidemic prevention measures to untie, but because the local property market has fallen, the economic recovery will also take time.
The introduction of related measures is difficult to immediately restore the market's disadvantage, coupled with Hong Kong to follow the United States to start the interest rate hike cycle, the Hong Kong Bank repeatedly raised the prime rate (P mortgage), stifling buyers' confidence to enter the market, the volume of transactions have been record low.
Unless society speeds up to return to normal and the mainland and Hong Kong implement the resumption of normal customs clearance as soon as possible, it is expected to boost the economy and stabilize the property market, otherwise there is no time for the property market to "remove the spice" and the "visibility" of the property market in 2023 will continue to be low.
According to a survey conducted by Hongkong Land from the end of November to early December, nearly 25% of the respondents believe that the trend of interest rate has become the most influential factor to enter the market, which is a record high since the second quarter of 2016, said Wang Pindi, director of research department of Hongkong Land.
According to the survey, more than 50% of respondents are still bearish on the future market and expect property prices to continue to fall in the next 12 months, but the proportion has fallen by 9.1 percentage points from the record high of more than 60% last quarter.
At the same time, people who are optimistic about the future of the market, rebounded from a low of less than 20% last quarter to about 28.4%. Among them, about 22.7% of respondents believe that property prices in Hong Kong will rise 5% in the next 12 months, reflecting the public's views on property prices next year is not overwhelmingly pessimistic.
Centaline Group founder Shi Yongqing said, not sure whether the bottom of the property market, but do not think it is the best time to enter the market.
Despite the recent good news in the market, including the slowdown in U.S. interest rate hikes and the rationalization of the epidemic policy to bring support to the property market, but does not mean that there will be an actual turn, considerations include the public usually enter the market when the property market rises to make money, many potential young buyers choose to immigrate, bringing new challenges to the medium and long-term property market.
