The author believes that the masses and even many academics have entered into a misunderstanding in the face of market logic, that is, they have taken the current situation as a "market result", in fact, the current situation in Hong Kong is only the result of the impact of peripheral factors and policy factors! On the contrary, the next stage, that is, after the contraction, the market will rebound under the low bubble, which is barely a market result!
Epidemics, social movements, China-US trade friction and even man-made sadness are not market factors. Let's review the four major structures of the property market (high capital, insufficient supply, wealth effect and low borrowing rate), apart from the change in supply to be replenished, the others have remained completely unchanged or even intensified, as the "Lam Cheng plan", "Uncle Bo's plan" in recent years, coupled with the new mortgage measures, are all aimed at improving the property market. Mortgage measures are focused on the revitalization of the chain of property exchange, many people exchange naturally more fine unit supply, fine units because of the increase in the amount of second-hand release and the need to re-find the consolidation point, but the author believes that the immediate fine unit prices downward and will not last long, because on the other hand, rents are strongly into the upward channel, the price of the rental rate of return increases, the sale price will stabilize later in the time!
These four years because the wealth has not disappeared, Hong Kong cohesion of purchasing power is strong, now the M3 capital (16.37 trillion dollars) is higher than in mid-2019 (14.59 trillion dollars). Because of the property market, Hong Kong has also accumulated a lot of property exchange purchasing power, which has not been fully released because of the recent policy to revitalize the chain of property exchange, but is still plagued by pessimism and a wait-and-see atmosphere, and the purchasing power will be released later when the economic environment is further optimistic.
The proportion of Hong Kong's homeowners who have made full mortgage payments is more than 66%, and the figures for time deposits are even more appalling, with the increase in time deposits over the past year and a half amounting to $2,800 billion, much higher than even the $1,900 billion in residential mortgage loans, and Hong Kong people are actually blessed by the interest rate hike!
The structure of the Dragon Market Theory has not changed, only by peripheral factors to change the market was forced to enter the Dragon Market II, when the market is fully consolidated, the author insists that the Dragon Market I gradual price recovery will still occur. Before the launch of the new mortgage policy, many people are surprised that the author is still "singing praises" is a thankless task, why do I still want to issue positive data?
Because I think the real estate agent's responsibility is to be a market witness, in fact, not only property prices rise, every time before the fall in property prices in fact, the author has the same published beforehand, only the market bias only noticed the author sings good time only, I think that "tell the truth" is important, will still insist on the facts of personal observation through the article to give you a display.
