Centaline Property Research's Senior Associate Director, Ms Yeung Ming Yee, said that the estimated number of private residential completions in 2024 is 22,864, which will be a 20-year high since 2004 (26,036).

From 2022 onwards, the supply of private flats will stabilise, with an average of around 20,000 private flats to be completed each year, with 21,168 in 2022, 18,246 in 2023, rising to 22,864 in 2024. The low level of completions in the past has ended and remains at 20,000 per year.

A selection of 63 projects are expected to be completed in 2024, providing a total of 22,864 units. The annual supply of new homes is forecast to remain at around 20,000, with the number of completions fluctuating from a low of 14,000 to a high of 21,000 from 2018 to 2021, averaging 17,000 per year, and an average of 21,000 per year from 2022 to 2024. The number of completions has risen from 17,000 in the past four years to over 20,000 in the past three years.

There are 21 projects in the New Territories, with a total of 11,241 units. The figure was high at 10,000 units. The districts with more completions were mainly in New Territories West: Tuen Mun (2,432 units) and Yuen Long (2,313 units); and Tai Po (2,263 units) in New Territories East.

In Kowloon, there are 29 projects with a total of 10,421 units. The figure reverted to over 10,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 2,657 units, which will be a record high in the past 20 years. The sudden increase is mainly due to the peak completion of 2,858 units in 2021, 3,686 units in 2022, 2,809 units in 2023 and 5,715 units in 2024, for a total of 15,068 units over four years.

On Hong Kong Island, there are 13 projects with a total of 1,202 units. The number has dropped from over 2,000 in 2022 to around 1,000 per year in 2023 and 2024, a significant reduction in supply. The districts with more completions are Aberdeen (905 units) and Western District (118 units).