According to the established projection methodology of the Long Term Housing Strategy, adjusted for the vacancy situation of private residential units, the total housing demand for the next 10 years (i.e. 2023/24 to 2032/33) is 421,000 units.

Therefore, the government has set the supply target at 430,000 units, which is the same as last year. The Government has decided to maintain the ratio of public housing to private housing at 70:30, hence the supply targets for public housing and private housing are 301,000 and 129,000 respectively.

As announced in the earlier policy address, the government has found enough land to provide about 360,000 public housing units in the next 10 years, exceeding the supply target by nearly 20% and "meeting the target" for three consecutive years.

A spokesman for the SAR Housing Authority said yesterday that the government has set a target ratio of 70:30 for new supply of public and private housing since 2018.

After balancing various considerations, including the need to significantly increase the supply of public housing to meet demand, and the community's demand for private housing, the ratio of public to private housing will remain unchanged for the next 10 years.

Taking into account the continued public demand for public housing, the Government will maintain the supply ratio of public housing/green houses for sale and other subsidized housing at 70:30 over the next 10 years.

Based on this ratio, of the 301,000 public housing supply target, 210,000 public housing/green house units and 91,000 other subsidized housing units will be provided.

In estimating overall housing demand, the LTHS Annual Progress Report calculates a net increase of 189,400 dwelling units, 72,400 dwelling units affected by redevelopment, 127,500 dwelling units in poor living conditions, plus 24,200 other factors (including 540 units per year for non-local students who may be living in Hong Kong, and 24,200 units per year for non-local students who have not yet sell or rent their units, and 1,180 units per year for non-local buyers who have not yet sold or rented their units).

In addition, since the private housing market has a number of vacant units at any one time, an additional 7,500 vacant units will be needed in the next 10-year projection, and the final 421,000 units will be the total housing supply target for the next 10 years.

According to the Policy Address, the Government has identified sufficient land to provide about 360,000 public housing units in the next 10 years.

The Long Term Progress Report further shows that in terms of units, the supply will mainly come from new development areas and large-scale developments (about 38%), land rezoning (about 37%) and other projects (about 25%), including brownfield developments, redevelopment of the Hong Kong Housing Authority Factory Building and the development of the upper floors of the Siu Oyster Bay Depot.

The Government will make good use of valuable land resources to increase public housing construction through optimizing development potential.

However, the supply of 360,000 units will continue to be "top-heavy", of which about one-third is expected to be completed in the first five-year period (i.e. 2023/24 to 2027/28).

Since most of the projects in the first five-year period are either under construction or at an advanced stage of "land reclamation," the completion schedule for these projects is relatively accurate.

For the projects scheduled for completion in the second five-year period, most sites are in the land preparation or study phase. Whether they can be used for public housing depends on the completion of the necessary procedures for zoning, district consultation, infrastructure, land resumption, clearance and relocation of affected facilities as scheduled, and the development timeline is quite volatile.

As for the supply of private residential units, the Government will continue to develop sufficient land to meet the supply target of 129,000 private residential units in the next ten years.

In the next five years, the government will prepare land for the market through land sales and railroad property development to build no less than 72,000 units. Together with the Urban Renewal Authority projects and other private land development projects, this will be sufficient to meet the private housing supply target under the Long Term Strategy.

In terms of short-term supply, according to the latest forecast at the end of September this year, the supply of first-hand private residential property market is expected to be about 95,000 units in the next three to four years.