With the new projects maturing this year, the latest forecast from Ridgecott's Head of Property Research, Mr Chan Hoi Chiu, indicates that there will be a potential supply of around 119 new first-hand private residential projects in Hong Kong this year, providing a total of around 40,291 units, an increase of 18.3% from the forecast of 34,046 units in 2022, the most in 19 years since 2005, and the first time in a period that the 40,000-unit mark has been crossed.

However, the actual number of units to be put up for sale will depend on developers' deployment and market conditions, with preliminary estimates putting the number of units to be put up for sale closer to reality at around 20,000.

Chan Hoi Chiu pointed out that the largest source of supply this year will continue to be the above-station railway projects, involving seven stations and a total of 16 projects across Hong Kong, Kowloon and the New Territories, providing a total of 12,227 units, accounting for 30.3% of the total number of units in Hong Kong.

By district, the potential supply in Kowloon rarely exceeds that of the New Territories, surpassing 17,000 units, nearly 10% more than the New Territories. 48 private residential projects with a total of 17,086 units are potentially available for sale in 2023, mainly due to the fact that as many as 11 projects (including the subdivided phased projects) in the Kai Tak runway area have the opportunity to come on stream, providing a total of 6,362 units, which already accounts for nearly 40% of the potential supply in Kowloon.

It is worth mentioning that in addition to the above-mentioned Kai Tak runway area, there are 3 projects in other parts of Kai Tak with a total of 2,230 units, which means that there is a total supply of 8,592 units in Kai Tak as a whole, making Kowloon City the busiest district among the 18 districts in Hong Kong with a total of 33 projects with 10,944 units.

In the New Territories, there are only 28 potential supply projects involving 15,594 units.

The focus is on Yuen Long and Sai Kung, with a combined total of 9,925 units, accounting for nearly a quarter (24.6%) of the territory's total.

The Yuen Long district is mainly supported by three large projects, including the third largest single development this year - 1,393 units in Phase 1 of the above-ground project on Tin Shui Wai Tin Wing Station, followed by 1,025 units in Phases 1 and 2 of Hung Shui Kiu Hui Du and 939 units in Phase C of The YOHO Hub at Yuen Long Station South, bringing the total number of 11 projects in Yuen Long to 5.356 units, This makes Yuen Long the second largest sub-district in Hong Kong in terms of potential supply, with a total of 5,356 units from 11 projects.

On Hong Kong Island, 43 potential projects involving 7,611 units are on the market, with nearly 77% of these projects being small new developments of 200 units or less.

The largest supply in the region comes from the Southern District with 4,082 units (53.6% of the total on Hong Kong Island), with the focus on the south shore of Hong Kong Island above Wong Chuk Hang Station, of which Phase 5 is the largest single project in the region, providing 1,050 units.